Pandemic - How to Prepare for an Outbreak of infectious disease

A pandemic is the rapid spread of infectious disease to a large number of people in a short time on a scale that crosses international boundaries. The World Health Organization WHO has a 6 stage classification for the process. In the UK, the Government estimates that in the case of pandemic flu up to half of the population may become infected with up to 750,000 additional deaths (that is deaths that would not have happened over the same period of time had a pandemic not taken place (UK Gov, 2013). The UK Influenza Preparedness Strategy (2011) describes the Governments strategic approach. 

UK - High Risk for a pandemic but well prepared 

Global Risk Analysts Maplecroft have rated the UK as 'extreme risk' for the spread of influenza while at the same time assessing that the UK is among the ten countries with the highest capacity to contain a pandemic should one occur. This is a spread model for influenza  by Imperial College London (2006)

Disease modelling often takes into account the role of air travel in spreading illness; for example Centre of Disease Modelling (CDM) at the York Institute for Health Research.

Select resources:

WHO Infectious Diseases; WHO Disease Outbreak News DONs;  WHO GAR Global Alert and Response;  UK Gov on pandemic flu; HealthMap.org; more info on mosquitoes as vectors see our blog

NIH (re-) emerging infectious diseases

Watch TEDx talk, Prof Tom Solomon
Sex, Drugs and Emerging Viruses

Institute of Infection and Global Health University of Liverpool  / UK

• overall risk in the UK is low for most infectiuous diseases but it is important you stay informed (i.e. healthmap.org). If you travel, however, the situation may be very different. 
• get knowledgeable on the many different emerging infectious diseases and be critical of which sources you trust. There is a lot of scare mongering out there in the news and on certain websites also with regards to superbugs and drug resistance. Bacteria and viruses are constantly evolving but there is also good news in that new vaccines and new classes of drugs are being developped constantly (i.e. Science Daily). 
• if you travel, be aware of infectious diseases currently impacting your destination
  for example WHO country profiles, GOV.UK Foreign Travel Advice,  CDC Destinations List 
• Business Continuity Planning also should consider the impacts of a pandemic. For example, see the Personnel Today article "Ebola - should employers prepare?" Other Business resources include Flu.gov (US) advice on Business Planning for Pandemic Flu with guidance for Employers and Employees as well as wider communities.

2. PREPARE for an outbreak of an infectious disease

• staying healthy and fit contributes substantially to having a 'tough' immune system - your best first line of defence
• vaccination or preventative medications are available for some diseases; ask your healthcare professional for advice
• make an Emergency Plan  -  stock emergency supplies. Hygiene is very important, also see Infection Control.  If you travel, consider carrying PPE and additional items, i.e.travel supplies.
• know about Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), biosafty levels (Wiki, HSE), and proper procedures for donning and doffing (YouTube playlist)  if you anticipate coming into direct contact with an dangerous infectious disease  

 
3. STAY SAFE during an outbreak

• standard practise is to contain outbreaks; see i.e. UK Gov Pandemic Flu Public Health Response; 
• checks at border points may be instigated  i.e. see 2014 BBC: Heathrow to start screening passengers; 2003 BBC: Canada considers SARS screening despite this action being considered controversial if not outright useless by some. The WHO advises against screening yet governments often need to be seen as 'doing something'. Healthchecks can be difficult and expensive to organize and cause 'screening chaos' (Huffington Post). Evidence shows that travel bans don't work (Vox); however airports do play a role (Airport Business).
• minimize risk by avoidance; practise good hygiene procedures, remain vigilant and informed
• if you are concerned that you might have been affected, seek medical help immediately. Your chances of survival are exponentially higher under the care of medical professionals. See stories about surviving Ebola; i.e. "One Man's Story Surviving Ebola - The Times"; "Surviving SARS"

4. RECOVER 

• recovery may be a prolonged process. Depending on the severity of the pandemic impacts may affect communities and economies on a global level. See BMJ "Economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK; The Economist on Ebola: Panic only makes it worse; 

Select resources:

Norovirus (infrequent UK outbreaks): NHS |UK GOV | WHO: 5 keys to safer food PDF |

Avian Influenza (Bird Flu): WHO |  Gov.UK | NHS 

Ebola: What does Ebola actually do? -Science Mag |  MSF | Guardian Video: how Ebola spreads | WHO Ebola factsheet 

Malaria: WHO malaria information for travellers | Bill Gates: What it takes to wipe out Malaria | NHS anti-malaria medication | MSF 

MERS:  WHO Coronovairus MERS-CoV | NHS | CDC 

Tuberculosis: WHO | WHO campaign: reaching people with multi-drug-resistance | NHS

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