Category Archives: Flooding

Flooding and Preparedness for Flooding

El Niño 2026–27: What It Means for UK Business Continuity — Directly and Through Global Supply Chains

If you are responsible for business continuity, facilities, health and safety or procurement at a UK organisation, you have probably seen El Niño in the headlines this summer and filed it under “interesting, but not ours”. That would be a reasonable instinct. El Niño is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon occurring thousands of kilometres from Britain, and the UK’s weather is governed by the Atlantic.

It would also be the wrong conclusion. The event now developing is forecast to be one of the strongest on record, and the official assessment is that any effects on the UK could well be felt most sharply not this year but in 2027 — and that they would arrive through food, freight and energy rather than through the weather forecast.

This article sets out what has actually been declared, what the UK can and cannot expect directly, where the genuine exposure sits for British organisations, and what a proportionate preparedness response looks like over the next eighteen months.

What has been declared, and how strong it is

On 2 June 2026 the World Meteorological Organization forecast that El Niño conditions were developing, putting the likelihood of an event during June–August 2026 at 80%, rising to around 90% thereafter. Onset was then formally declared by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on 11 June 2026, and an El Niño Advisory remains in force.

The numbers from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center ENSO diagnostic discussion of 9 July 2026:

  • The Niño-3.4 index — the standard measure of central Pacific sea-surface temperature anomaly — stood at +1.2°C.
  • There is a 97% probability the event persists through early spring 2027.
  • There is an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026, potentially ranking among the largest events since records began in 1950.

The Met Office’s assessment, published on the day of NOAA’s declaration, is consistent. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to exceed 2°C, and Professor Adam Scaife has described the event as “likely to be a significant event – perhaps one of the most intense on record.” The Met Office further notes that the event is expected to persist and grow through the remainder of the year, with 2027 potentially becoming the warmest year in the global series that begins in 1850.

For planning purposes, treat this as a high-confidence forecast of a large event, and a low-confidence forecast of exactly what it will do to Britain.

What the UK can expect directly — and the honesty this deserves

Here is where a lot of commentary overreaches, so it is worth being precise.

In its April 2026 assessment, the Met Office was explicit that El Niño’s influence on UK weather is indirect and unreliable:

“El Niño takes place thousands of kilometres away from north-west Europe, so its influence on UK weather is indirect. While there are sometimes links between El Niño events and European weather patterns, these are far from guaranteed.”

The Met Office adds that UK weather is shaped by many competing factors affecting the Atlantic jet stream, and that it is “too early to draw firm conclusions” about what this El Niño means for coming UK seasons.

Within those caveats, the Met Office’s June 2026 update does set out two tendencies — as a tilt in probability, not a forecast:

  • El Niño “can increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year, including a higher chance of milder, wetter and windier weather during autumn and early winter.”
  • El Niño “can also be associated with colder and calmer late winter periods in the UK.”

Neither is strong enough to plan a business around on its own. What they justify is a bias in your winter preparations: if you are deciding where to put limited resilience budget this autumn, wind and surface-water flooding are marginally better bets than snow — while keeping late-winter cold provision intact rather than deferring it.

The operationally useful move here is not to guess. The Met Office publishes a 3-month outlook for contingency planners, provided to the contingency planning community on behalf of the Cabinet Office, specifically for organisations making this class of decision. Building a review of it into your quarterly continuity meeting is a far better basis for a decision than a newspaper headline.

Where the real UK exposure sits

The House of Commons Library briefing on what a strong El Niño could mean for the UK points in a clear direction. It notes that “increased flooding, storms, wildfires and droughts across the world could lead to crop losses and supply chain disruption, which could affect the UK”, while direct European weather links “can be hard to predict”. It also states that the effects of El Niño on global temperature and rainfall “are generally most pronounced in the second year after an El Niño develops”, and that European effects often lag the event itself and “could result in weather in 2027”.

In other words: the exposure that matters for most UK organisations runs through global disruption rather than through the British weather forecast, and 2027 is the year to plan around.

Four channels matter for UK organisations.

1. Food and agricultural commodities

El Niño tends to suppress rainfall across a recognisable set of agricultural regions. The Food and Agriculture Organization identified the highest-risk zones on 22 June 2026, noting that across the Sahel, Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Central America’s Dry Corridor and the Caribbean, “some agricultural and pastureland areas face more than a 50 percent chance of drought”:

  • Southern Africa — Namibia, Botswana, Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar. FAO notes the 2023–24 cycle left 61 million people in need of assistance.
  • Central America and the Caribbean — a 70% probability of below-normal rainfall across the region, particularly the Dry Corridor.
  • South and Southeast Asia — Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Timor-Leste, where a weakened monsoon hits rice and maize during critical growing windows.
  • The Sahel — from Senegal and Mauritania across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria, and into Ethiopia and Sudan.

FAO and the World Food Programme have launched a joint appeal for $202 million to protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries.

The UK connection is direct. Defra’s UK Food Security Digest 2025 puts the UK production-to-supply ratio at 65% for all food and 77% for indigenous-type food — meaning roughly a third of what Britain eats is imported. The Digest also documents how overseas climate events transmit into UK prices: Brazilian coffee production forecast down 5%, cocoa peaking at USD 10.75/kg in January 2025 on West African supply concerns, and food price inflation running at 5.1% by August 2025, above general inflation.

What this means for you: if your organisation provides catering, holds welfare stock, runs a canteen, or has contracted food provision in its continuity plan, expect price pressure and possible substitution on specific lines through 2027. Organisations that hold emergency food provision should be reviewing now, while stock and pricing are stable, rather than in the middle of a squeeze.

2. Supply chains and freight

The WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, has been direct that El Niño’s effects reach “agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods.”

The practical mechanisms are drought affecting inland waterways and canal transits, flooding closing ports and road links, and tropical cyclone activity redistributing across ocean basins. None of these is predictable at the level of a single shipment. Taken together, though, they make a reasonable planning assumption out of the idea that lead times on imported goods will be less reliable in 2027 than they are today.

What this means for you: if any part of your emergency, first aid or welfare provision depends on imported components — and most of it does — the sensible planning assumption is longer and more variable lead times next year. Bring forward scheduled replenishment rather than running stock down to the reorder point.

3. Energy and utilities

Milder-than-average autumn conditions reduce heating demand; a cold, calm late-winter block does the opposite while simultaneously reducing wind generation. That combination — high demand, low wind — is the one that stresses the system.

The Cabinet Office’s National Risk Register, updated in July 2026, sets out national-level power failure as one of the most serious risks facing the UK. As we covered in Lessons from the Iberian Blackout, a modern grid event escalates into a welfare and communications problem within hours for organisations that assumed continuity of supply.

What this means for you: El Niño does not create this risk, but it slightly raises the odds of the specific weather pattern that tests it. Provision that does not depend on mains power — lighting, communications, heat, water, food — is the relevant hedge, and it is useful in a dozen other scenarios too.

4. Overseas staff, sites and partners

If your organisation has people, suppliers or operations in the regions FAO has flagged, the exposure is not abstract. Drought, flooding and disease-vector shifts in those regions will affect staff welfare, site access and supplier viability well before they affect UK prices.

A proportionate response: what to actually do

The UK Government’s Prepare campaign frames preparedness as a set of straightforward, non-alarmist steps. The same logic applies at organisational scale. This is not a case for emergency spending; it is a case for bringing routine resilience work forward and biasing it in a known direction.

Before winter 2026:

  1. Review your welfare and emergency food provision — check expiry dates and quantities while supply and pricing are stable. Freeze-dried provision with a long shelf life is specifically useful here because it takes the decision off next year’s table entirely.
  2. Bias winter preparation toward wind, storm and surface-water flooding rather than snow, while retaining cold provision for late winter.
  3. Build the Met Office 3-month outlook for contingency planners into your quarterly review cycle. It is designed for exactly this decision.
  4. Bring forward replenishment of anything with an imported supply chain — first aid consumables, water purification, lighting, batteries.

During 2027 — the year the Commons Library flags:

  1. Stress-test the assumption that you can buy what you need at short notice. Most continuity plans quietly assume a functioning just-in-time supply chain. That assumption is exactly what a strong El Niño year erodes.
  2. Check shelter-in-place provision for sites that cannot simply send people home — data centres, control rooms, care settings, secure facilities.
  3. Review overseas duty-of-care arrangements against the FAO risk regions if you have staff or operations there.

The uncomfortable summary

The strongest El Niño in a generation is very likely to produce, for the UK, no single dramatic weather event that anyone will remember. What it is more likely to produce is a year in which food costs more, deliveries take longer, and the emergency stock you meant to replenish turns out to be on a long lead time.

That is not the sort of risk that generates urgency. It is the sort that rewards organisations who did routine things slightly earlier than they had to.

If you would like help reviewing your organisation’s emergency and welfare provision ahead of winter — or specifying bespoke site provision for staff who cannot leave — our team has been doing exactly this work for UK organisations since 2005. Get in touch or explore our business and workplace emergency solutions.

Sources

All sources below are government departments, national meteorological services, UN agencies or the UK Parliament.

  1. Met Office — El Niño declared for 2026 as Pacific warms — https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/el-nio-declared-for-2026-as-pacific-warms
  2. Met Office — Pacific Ocean warming signals the possible return of a strong El Niño, 15 April 2026 — https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/met-office-what-is-el-nino-and-will-we-see-one-this-year
  3. NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued 9 July 2026. Current discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml — archived discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/(note: the CPC reissues this page monthly; cite the dated archive copy after publication)
  4. World Meteorological Organization — El Niño/La Niña Update, May–June 2026 — https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates/el-ninola-nina-update-may-2026 ; reported via UN News, 2 June 2026 — https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/06/1167620
  5. UN Food and Agriculture Organization — El Niño is coming. Here is where the risks to agriculture are highest, 22 June 2026 — https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/el-nino-is-coming-here-is-where-the-risks-to-agriculture-are-highest/en
  6. House of Commons Library — What might a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño mean for the UK?, CBP-10901, 15 June 2026 — https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10901/
  7. Defra — United Kingdom Food Security Digest 2025, published 11 December 2025 — https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/united-kingdom-food-security-digest-2025/united-kingdom-food-security-digest-2025
  8. Cabinet Office — National Risk Register 2026, published 14 July 2026 — https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-2026
  9. Met Office — Weather services for contingency planners (3-month outlook) — https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/contingency-planners
  10. HM Government — Prepare campaign — https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/

The Great British Summer, #weatheraware #floodaware and better personal preparedness

May is always a special time in the UK with not one but two Bank Holiday Weekends giving us all some cherished time off. What a stunner they were, quite literally with glorious weather turning nasty quite quickly and in a sense – sadly and tragically for some – going from ‘heaven to hell’ rather fast as I’ve written about earlier in Disaster Preparedness – what Disaster? Why Preparedness?

Did you witness this?

 

Local help was quick and is another excellent showcase for UK Community Resilience, the power of volunteering and how it pays to be kind

… but despite best efforts, tragedy struck

 

Better personal preparedness saves lives and property. This concerns us all as we are experiencing the consequences of living in a world that is 2C or more warmer. Pro-active preparedness is key and there is much that everyone can do including better personal safety and better personal preparedness.  It’s all about personal capacities and capabilities and what that exactly means (what you must plan and prepare for) and looks like is different for every person. However, it all starts the same way for everybody:

GET A KIT. MAKE A PLAN. BE INFORMED.

 

 

This website and blog offers lots of very useful tips so take a good look around and start building your personal preparedness today. Head to our preparedness hub, browse the blog navigation here on the right as well as the top navigation of the website. And remember to follow us on social media for more info, updates and resources.

Summer 2018 is here! Enjoy it and stay safe at home and during your travels. Always stay #weatheraware#floodaware, know about #preparedness and be better prepared.

Monika
thank you for sharing!

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UK Community Resilience: Flood Action Groups and Volunteer Major Incident Response Teams lead the way

An update on the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum NYLRF Community Resilience and Emergency Plan scheme

Back in October 2015 I first introduced you to UK Community Resilience – a brilliant example of what really works and a follow up of the project. Several seasons of storms and flooding later as well as post 2016 National Flood Resilience Review, it’s high time I update you on progress, for much has indeed happened at North Yorkshire Resilience Forum (NYLRF) to raise community resilience and get people better prepared.

The pilot project originally started with 11 trail blazing communities two years ago reaching around 22’000 people. Now take a look at how this project has grown to include all these communities:

North Yorkshire Communi Resilience map

Green means Community Emergency Plans completed and orange means Community Emergency Plans are under way. This is amazing progress! 🙂 The map is updated regularly and you can see it for yourself by visiting the NYLRF Community Emergency Plans page (click the black and white map there to get to the live one).

One of the communities that has been on board since the word ‘go’ is Tadcaster Flood Action Group. They have a brilliant website and are also on twitter @TadFloodGroup and  facebook so check them out.

Tadcaster Flood Action Group

Their team of dedicated volunteers simply do amazing work and have vast experience since their town was divided by the famous bridge collapse thanks to the terrible 2015 winter storms namely Storm Eva and Storm Frank.

This year, to raise awareness even further, Tadcaster Flood Action Group is planning a bi-monthly newsletter distributed via the website, email and leaflet drop at properties at risk in Tadcaster and I for one cannot wait to see their first edition. Networking and organising local evens are, naturally, also on the agenda and they work with communities such as Ulleskelf Flood Action Group, Newton Kyme and Kirby Wharfe, sharing knowledge and experience to keep communities safe from flooding and build community resilience.

Community Preparedness Kits form one important aspect of the NYLRF Emergency Plan Scheme (together with plans and training), providing tools and resources to those on the front line.

Nicola Eades from Tadcaster Flood Action Group says:

“The community resilience kit which we received has been absolutely fabulous and is a kit that we have in our central base. It simply gives the group peace of mind and a preparation tool having it to hand.”

 

Robin Derry, senior Emergency Planner at North Yorkshire and creator of the NYLRF community resilience scheme already looks ahead, saying:

“The success shown by communities such as Tadcaster is helping to promote this scheme to other communities across the county resulting in a rapid upturn in community preparedness. The added incentive of a free emergency kit is definitely a bonus.

We have a number of events planned across the coming months to promote the scheme further and long list of communities wanting to get up and running with a plan.”

 

In addition, another recent successful example, Ingleton, has been reported in the press:

Ingleton Community Emergency Preparedness Plan

 

But it does not end here. In addition to Flood Action, I want to also tell you about another NYLRF collaboration to tackle community resilience from yet another vital angle: mental health. Meet Alex Sutcliffe and her Major Incident Response Team (MIRT) who will offer support in the aftermath of a traumatic incident such as major flooding to help those who may have been affected:


Find out more about what they do on the Post Incident Support page on the NYRLF website and keep your eyes on this blog which will soon post more about  @alexsutcliffe24 work who explains:

“The MIRT team are a very special team of volunteers who are always ready and willing to be called out to support communities or individuals through a traumatic experience.  We do this by offering emotional and practical support, whenever and wherever it is needed.  The MIRT bags from EVAQ8 have been invaluable as an additional resource to allow the volunteers to be prepared and raring to go with ‘life essentials’ and short notice.
When communities or individuals need the assistance of one or more of the MIRT volunteers, it is at a time when they are at their most vulnerable.  Being evacuated from your home at short notice can leave you feeling very vulnerable and ‘out of control’.  The skills of the MIRT team, ensure that anyone in our care is well looked after and kept safe until such a time that they are able to return to their own homes.”

 

The creation of this special team is a UK first and so all must be hugely congratulated for getting this off the ground.

 

Building community resilience in the UK remains a top priority and the NYLRF model approach is a brilliant example that works.

Hazards and risks are many, not just flooding as we are preparing for a world that’s a least 2°C warmer.

Clearly, Resilience and Preparedness roadblocks  have not damped the spirits of the many dedicated emergency planners and volunteers that make it happen in Yorkshire. It is my sincere hope that their example will go on to inspire many. Why not consider starting a Flood Action or Community Preparedness Group in your area? Get in touch with your Local Resilience Forum and find out what opportunities there are.

Be prepared – not scared!

Monika

For more Resilience Blog simply use the right hand navigation. For emergency kits and practical resources use the top navigation. For more on Emergency and Disaster Preparedness head over to our FREE resources at the Preparedness Hub and find out why we use humour. If you like this post, please share it to help raise awareness for Emergency and Disaster Preparedness. 

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added on 25Sep2017 as part of 30days30waysUK#prep2017day25 #preparedCommunity

The 2016 National Flood Resilience Review for the time-pressed: UK Flooding, what you need to know

updated 02/11/2016

“We need to recognise that there is a non-negligible chance that we will see further events (flooding) of a similar, or maybe even greater, scale over the next decade.” (Executive summary)

Sadly, awareness of the seriousness of flooding is very thin on the ground. Just 6-8% of people actually living with flood risk know they are vulnerable, a figure that has not changed much since 2014 according to the Environment Agency’s @johncurtinEA.

That was households. What about business? For small businesses that make up 99% of the UK economy, it turns out that SME’s ‘prefer’ to react rather than pro-actively engage in business continuity and business preparedness as discussed recently during @TheFloodExpo . Dr Jessica Lamond (CFCR UWE)  showed that, sadly, SMEs are not pro-active (despite this making a lot of business sense), taking active steps only after having been flooded – twice! Even after measures are taken, actual preparedness is just at 60%. These are stark figures.

 

In September  the @cabinetofficeuk with @DefraGovUK under the leadership of  @andrealeadsom and with input from @uksciencechief published the National Flood Resilience Review. It charts the immense work undertaken by @EnvAgency and @metoffice in the wake of the devastating 2015/16 floods, lessons learnt and ways forward for better resilience nationwide.

For those of you who are time pressed or disinclined to read the full report, here are some key points important for household and business preparedness:

UK Flooding: money matters

  • £2.3 billion will be spent over the next six years from 2015- 2021 to strengthen flood and coastal defences with a particular focus on better protecting 300,000 homes
  • recovery packages handled by local authorities are currently in place for homes, businesses and farms in areas of Northern England affected by the 2015/6 floods
  • Flood Re has been established to ensure that households can continue to obtain affordable flood insurance (schemes for small business are being discussed; source: FloodExpo)

UK Flooding: severe weather and more frequent, stronger storms

  • the intensity of recent storms is unusual, but not unprecedented
  • a comprehensive study of trends (1871-2010) shows a robust signal of increasing numbers of strong winter storms and with increasing intensity for the high latitude North Atlantic; further south over the mid-latitude North Atlantic (ie the path of the storms that affected the UK in winter 2013/14) signal are more complex. Although the number of strong winter storms has not increased since 1871, storm mean intensity has increased. Notably, for very strong storms, the mean intensity has increased significantly. However, results are not conclusive and there remains substantial scientific debate about the behaviour of the North Atlantic jet stream and the storms that form along it.

UK Flooding: extreme rain fall, extreme tidal scenarios, sea level rise

  • rainfall depends on geography, the west receiving ten times more rain than the east of the UK; England and Wales is divided into six climate regions
  • based on robust analysis, the Met Office concludes that winter monthly rainfall totals could plausibly be 20% higher than recent past extremes in some parts of the country and up to 30% higher than recent past extremes in other parts
  • seasonal variability: winter flows have increased in upland, western catchments; autumn flows have increased in Central England and parts of Eastern Scotland. There is no apparent pattern of change in summer flows across the UK
  • high winter flows have increased over the last 30 years and there has been an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flooding over the same period, particularly in the West and North.  However, as with rainfall, longer records demonstrate that there are flood-rich and flood-poor periods in the hydrological record. Reconstruction of floods from sediment records suggests some very large floods in the 18th and 19th centuries
  • sea level along the English Channel has already risen by about 12cm during the 20th century; this is over and above the increases associated with sinking of the southern part of the UK due to isostatic adjustment from the last Ice Age; this increases the risk of coastal flooding and tidal locking. A further overall 11-16cm of sea level rise is likely by 2030, relative to 1990
  • the Environment Agency’s Extreme Flood Outlines (EFO) have been stress-tested and found to be a reliable way to identify areas at risk from extreme river and coastal flooding over the next ten years
  • the risk of extreme river flows resulting in a severe flood are not unusual but the probability of this occurring is low
  • the 2016 National Risk Assessment (confidential document) for the first time differentiates fluvial and surface water flood risk in place of a single ‘inland flood risk’, allowing a better targeted approach to planning and management (NRR Civil Emergencies)

Limitations of scientific models

  • statistical analysis used to produce the report assumes that the probability of flooding has not changed significantly over time, for example because of  changes in land use, climate change or other climatic variations
  • interestingly climate change was not identified as a factor, so called ‘natural variability’ dominating extreme rainfall scenarios ; but there was consensus that the techniques used should be developed further to explore a fuller range of possible events
  • the variable nature of regional/local weather and rainfall plus the complexities of terrain and catchments mean that any results are indicative only and cannot describe all settings
  • the next set of UK Climate Projections due to be published in 2018 (UKCP18)

 

UK flooding: critical national infrastructure and the private sector

We depend on a secure supply of services such as electricity, telecommunications, water, healthcare and transport. Many are delivered by the private sector. Government, sector regulators and industries are working together to ensure security of supply across the 13 CNI (critical national infrastructure) sectors (more, see CPNI). The loss of local services during the winter floods 2015/6 meant that, for the first time, individual sector-by-sector assets at risk from flooding were identified.   The complex inter-dependencies between sectors continue to be investigated.

  • 1640 potentially vulnerable national infrastructure asset sites serving a (pragmatically determined) population threshold range from 10,000 to 25,000 have been identified, most  of which were deemed ‘defended’
  • 530 key infrastructure sites around the country are currently vulnerable to flooding (again within the 10,000-25,000 threshold)
  • infrastructure sectors are at different stages in the resilience building process, some have yet to complete their analysis. Losing electricity or hospitals are particularly acute ‘worst case’ scenarios impacting communities
  • the electricity industry will invest £250 million (2015-2021) to protect the network against flooding; sites serving more than 10,000 people which are not protected against an extreme flood have been surveyed and have a plan in place to deploy temporary barriers if required and feasible
  • work with the water industry to extend analysis to cover all relevant water assets (clean and waste) serving more than 10,000 people continues
  • transport is vulnerable, investments are under way
    • Network Rail is planning to spend £900 million over the next three years
    • Highways England plans to invest £78 million over the next five years to reduce the risk of flooding on major roads, and a further £300 million as part of its Road Investment Strategy
    • Gatwick Airport following flood-related disruption in December 2013, commissioned an independent review of its vulnerability to flooding and is allocating a further £10 million above and beyond the original £20 million investment in flood resilience over the next 2 years
    • the Department for Transport promote closer working between ports and Local Resilience Forums to improve overall awareness of, and preparation for, severe flooding and port resilience groups are being set up along the East Coast

(thankfully health and safety is much stricter in the UK)

UK flooding: temporary flood defenses

Permanent flood defenses are clearly preferable to temporary defenses. In some instances, however, permanent solutions either do not offer value for money or cannot improve the situation before next winter. Therefore temporary defenses play an immediate role in strengthening the resilience of local infrastructure: temporary barriers do not provide the same level of protection as permanent defenses; failure rates typically are 20-30%, although this can be reduced by good advanced planning

      • no type of temporary barrier is universally deployable in all situations, and generally they cannot withstand large wave action. All leak to a certain extent and therefore need to be supplemented by pumps (annex 8 illustrates a range of temporary flood defenses such as tube, filled container, frame barrier, flexible free standing and rigid free standing)

 

      • once installed, successful ongoing deployment requires additional support including security against theft and vandalism as well as health and safety measures such as lighting and access maintenance to surrounding homes and businesses

 

      • thorough site-specific pre-planning as well as the availability of sufficient numbers of trained staff or volunteers is critical to success (as are training exercises)

 

      • engineered hard flood defenses can only ever be part the solution. Benefits of natural flood management has been seen ie in Pickering, North Yorkshire and Holnicote in Somerset. The Government’s future 25 year plan for the environment will look at strengthening the role of local partners, bringing them together to integrate flood management with water planning at a catchment level.

 

 

UK flooding: improving incidence response

  • £12.5 million are being invested through the Environment Agency in temporary flood barriers, mobile water pumps and incident command vehicles – stored in strategic locations across the country for fast response
  • £0.75 million are being invested to provide maintenance grants to enable nationally deployable flood rescue teams to maintain their equipment
  • a single register of national flood response assets will be kept up to date and will be viewable through ResilienceDirect; developing new capabilities in line with responders’ requirements.
  • an operations centre will be established (as identified in the National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015) bringing together relevant organisations, including the armed forces
  • Defra in collaboration with other government departments will establish a standard operating model for local responders and the Environment Agency will work with Local Resilience Forums to identify opportunities to embed good practice in their flood response plans

 

UK flooding: flood defense and urban development

  • ultimate aim is to deliver flood defense levels for the Core Cities similar to that of London, Sheffield is the pilot project which, if successful will be broadened to the other core cities

 

The National Flood Resilience Review also contains interesting case studies in annex 4 which you may be interested to read especially if you are in or near to Carlisle, Calder Valley, Oxford, Exeter, Great Yarmouth, London (Teddington to Thames Barrier).   References

Much excellent work continues across the country including the setting up of local Flood Action Groups, Community Resilience Projects (i.e NYLRF) and flood prevention excercises such as

However, it also pays to be better prepared.There is a lot that can be done. If your’re an individual start at our preparedness hub, if you’re a small business start at business preparedness. Addition: EFRA report, Future flood prevention; Second Report of Session 2016–17

Be prepared, not scared.

Have a good week.

Monika     thank you for sharing, raising awareness for Emergency Preparedness!

For more EVAQ8 blog simply use the right hand navigation. For emergency kits and practical resources use the top navigation. For FREE resources head over to our Preparedness Hub and find out why we use humour. If you like this post, please share it to help raise awareness for Emergency and Disaster Preparedness. Thank you!

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Safe Evacuation: ‘mass’ evacuation and why ‘self’ evacuation preparedness makes a lot of sense

updated 24/06/2017

Mass evacuation is (mostly) self-evacuation – what you need to know.

Part 2 of  ‘Safe Evacuation – what exactly does safe evacuation look like?’  and ‘Safe Evacuation: tall buildings, tower blocks: why Personal Emergency Evacuation Plans and Emergency Preparedness tools are essential’ (tip: follow the blog category ‘Safe Evacuation’ on the right hand navigation).

The first post in this series looked at what an evacuation is (the immediate and urgent movement of people out of harm’s way to a safe location) and under what circumstances it may occur. It stayed pretty much within the familiar bounds of small scale evacuations from a home or a building of ‘regular’ size. Now I want to begin tackling another fascinating aspect which is ‘mass evacuation’. Timely and ironically perhaps I post this at the very moment a mass evacuation is actually under way in Florida and the Carolinas CNN Hurricane Matthew mass evacuation

 

Mass Evacuation: not relevant in peace-time UK ? Think again.

Other than the ‘regular’ emergency evacuations usually inconveniencing relatively small numbers of people because of suspicious packages (ie airports, train stations, high street, shops, shopping centres, and offices etc), sudden finds of unexploded WW devices (Southwark) and even sinking ferries you may remember these two major incidents:

      • 2005 Birmingham evacuates approximately 20,000 people following a security alert

 

       Neither, however, actually classifies as ‘mass evacuation’. According to the Mass Evacuation Framework (2014) by the London Resilience Partnership, evacuating 5,000 or 20,000 people is still ‘just’ a so called ‘medium scale evacuation’. Nevertheless, the Holbon electrical fire on 01 April 2015 is a good example and here is why. In the words of Gary Squires from the London Fire Brigade (BBC)

 “lots of people had “self-evacuated” from nearby buildings and it was only the ones on Kingsway that had been evacuated by the authorities.”

This illustrates the point I’m making about the importance of self-evacuation and the need for better preparedness. Why? Because many workers and students were unable to return for several days (36 hour blaze), having left behind wallets, phones, keys and other important personal items in their hurry to get to safety. Thankfully no one was hurt and the incident happened on a relatively fine spring day, not in the middle of rush hour or during severe weather. It would have been a different story.

I also want to mention the 7/7 bombing. Police estimate  4,000 people were caught up in the blasts in some way, many forced to self-evacuate. One of those people was my colleague Ben who has written here on school emergency preparedness. He will talk about his experience in a separate post. For now, I simply wish well all those currently caught up in the events of Hurricane Matthew and stress that preparedness is important and actually quite easy and straight forward where ever you are in the world.

UK organisations and businesses I urge to very seriously consider expanding your capacities and include Workplace Emergency Kits in your Health and Safety, Security and Business Continuity planning.  Considering how much such a simple and cost-effective step reduces your risks it is well worth the minor investment. A small item like a Personal Evacuation Pack to which items relevant to the individual have been added can make a real difference.    

Monika    

This post is also accessed by bit.ly/MassEVAC. 

 thank you for sharing and raising awareness for Emergency Preparedness

 

 

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Prepare for a world that’s more than 2° C warmer | Climate Change

updated 25June2017

That’s the UN’s most recent analysis. The world – us – will have emitted enough carbon to warm the planet by 2°C  by the year 2036, that’s just 20 years down the road!

“I think it is clear [the targets] will fall well short of what is required for any reasonable probability of avoiding 2° C”

So says Alice Bows-Larkin, Professor in Climate Science & Energy Policy of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Manchester UK as quoted in The New Scientist edition No 3046 of 7 November 2015 I’m reading this Remembrance Sunday (italics added by me; read the extended article online at The climate fact no one will admit: 2 °C warming is inevitable).

Barring any sudden personal tragedies or the ability to resettle on a different planet, this will impact us all: me, my family and friends as well as you, your family and friends.

What will a world be like with ‘just’ 2°C extra heat  – do we actually know?

I’ve heard people joke that they are looking forward to warmer and sunnier days. Well, now that would be lovely indeed, especially if you live quite far north (or south). Joke aside; it is actually an interesting reaction and not necessarily one born out of simple ignorance. For example, Freudian’s would point and say: classic denial, one of the most primitive defence mechanisms, a refusal to accept reality to avoid painful feelings. Cognitive psychologists would describe it i.e. as optimism bias and/or discounting, limitations on our rational cognitive processes  (i.e. see earlier post Resilience and Preparedness Roadblocks: what stops us?) It’s probably a bit of all of the above plus a good sprinkling of individual beliefs, personal experiences and personality.

Reality is, however that we will be getting more than just warmer and sunnier days. The crux of the problem is, nobody really knows just exactly what it all means. Climate change is one of the most urgent and profoundly complex challenges we face.

Better and better models – but we are really running out of time

Vast amounts of data feed numerous models every day (i.e. MetOffice) yet in the end they are just that: models, an approximation to reality.

At best, models attempt to explain and hopefully predict the future. How accurately? Well, that remains to be seen. The ukclimateprojections.metoffice data and projections many still use may well be outdated (2009 PDF) because they assume ‘medium’ emission scenarios.

A 2°C warmer world – some reasonable predictions: heatwaves and flooding

Warmer means more heatwaves

 

Serious Climate Change Problem: how to stay cool

Running air conditioners is the short-sighted answer. This is problematic not just because of guzzling energy which may overload the grid but also because it creates and dumps a lot of hot exhaust, adding to the problem rather than reducing it. Where we currently stand with producing not only efficient but also sustainable air conditioning systems is somewhat unclear(see The Guardian). Spraying or dousing heat stressed people with water only works to some extent as Dr Sundeep Dhillon recently explained at the Extreme Medicine Expo,  personal factors such as fitness and acclimatization status play a huge role. Treating heat illness will increasingly become a hot topic very soon. Undoubtedly we will see more of this:     

Warmer also means more flooding because of more severe weather events. There is a very good chance that the weather will not play by ‘our rules’ as per our models. Exceptional may well become the new normal which means more of this:

Yemen just this week, twice in quick succession:

Cape Verde in late August / early September

Flooding also happens because of rising sea levels. Thermostatic expansion, a volume and height increase as sea water warms plays a role as does melting ice. Some recent predictions are dire for coastal cities such as San Francisco:

Image from Coastal News Today, an well respected publication.

Models and projections while essential, don’t necessarily provide solutions. Models don’t’ fix.

Engineering, although playing a hugely important role to i.e. retrofitting, reinforcing and saving infrastructure, building in more resilient ways for the future, can also be problematic as The Rockefeller Foundation recently highlighted:

We need more than just design solutions, however. We also will need real alternatives to insurance for while a 2°C World Might Be Insurable, A 4°C World Certainly Would Not Be and we are heading there fast. We need a change in attitudes. We need a sense that we individually can really do something, change behavior, change culture and change our world for the better.  It means a serious interest and investment in disaster risk reduction. At the most fundamental level,  it all starts with prepared individuals that can achieve realistic confidence in the face of crisis. So, what is your Emergency & Disaster Preparedness Plan? Check our free resources and look through some of the earlier posts here.

Have a great week.

Monika

 

 thank you for sharing!

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UK Community Resilience – a brilliant example of what really works | part 2

About 6 weeks ago I first told you about the successful Community Resilience model “NYLRF Community Emergency Plan scheme” in my post UK Community Resilience – a brilliant example of what really works. Then, I gave you some solid scientific background on why this project was destined to score excellent results. Now it’s time for the promised details and updates.

Good news: communities are engaging in a very positive way

Since the scheme’s launch, North Yorkshire Resilience Forum (NYLRF) has seen a marked increase in community motivation, engagement and response.  Thanks to their substantial and sustained awareness raising efforts, more and more communities understand not only the necessity but also  the value of Emergency and Disaster Preparedness.

NYLRF’s success is such that they have managed to affect positive change in their local culture:

• communities are now pro-actively contacting NYLRF for information and support

What an amazing U-turn away from seemingly countless evening meetings and long presentations to sceptical audiences by hard-working NYRLF staff! Now they can concentrate their efforts on what they know best: creating and maintaining the many pieces of fine mechanics that make Community Resilience clockwork ticking accurately and with style – just like a Swiss watch, only with people in complex situations and hence much more difficult to achieve than one of my country’s most valuable exports.  

Who is lighting the way for Community Resilience in North Yorkshire?

Thousands of people are affected by known flood risks or sadly have previous experiences of incidents such suffering prolonged power outages or being cut off because of severe weather. Eleven communities are right now successfully completing the NYLRF Community Emergency Plan scheme, thus establishing themselves firmly on the map of Resilient Communities:Resilience Building Communities in North Yorkshire Congratulations to the brilliant trailblazers: Ingleton , Hellifield, Clapham, Swainby, Snape, Kirkby Fleetham, Crayke, Romanby, South Milford and Tadcaster

Almost 22’000 people are already benefiting

… from their active engagement with Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and the good news is that more communities are joining every week. All town/parish councils above mentioned have received their Community Preparedness Kits (or will shortly do so) and will also receive first aid  and defibrillator training for their community if requested.  More information via North Yorkshire Resilience Forum. And there is more! NYLRF are looking at how Community Emergency Preparedness Planning can integrate with and augment existing Yorkshire water distribution plans. For example, one work in progress is investigating the feasibility of using identified initial meeting points and/or rest centre car parks as water drop off points. Also, North Yorkshire County Council Emergency Planning Unit (NYCC EPU) and the Environment Agency’s Rapid response project are working closely together to engage with communities on their register that are at Very High and High risk of flash flooding.

The scheme will be adopted for flood risk across communities

Since it has been shown that the NYLRF Community Emergency Plan scheme increases both personal and community resilience it will be made available in areas where there is little or no warning of flash floods.

Communities will be better prepared and be able to act as competent first responders in many cases. Isn’t this all simply brilliant? I am amazed and thrilled to see this all taking shape.

All these ‘pieces’ are massively important Community Resilience Building Blocks and I hope that North Yorkshire’s positive and empowering local culture change will continue to spread far and wide.

Just how this can achieved in a fairly simple yet extremely effective way I will tell you next time when I talk more about Tadcaster. They are doing something truly inspiring to connect people and bring their Community Resilience firmly into the age of social media and the internet.

Please spread the word about Community Resilience and Emergency Preparedness in your area and if you want more info on custom made kits just check the website or simply get in touch. Our friendly and knowledgeable team is always happy to help.

Let us all be ready for what may well shape up to be a rough Winter.

For now, we still have a few glorious autumn days and so I leave you with this stunning image of Ingleton and wish you a Resilience-building week.       

 

 

Monika

also read Part 1 of this story (or follow the category ‘Yorkshire Model) and see the 2016 community resilience and preparedness flyer).   thank you for sharing and helping raise awareness for Community Resilience and Preparedness!

Emergency Go Bags arrive at NYLRF 28/04/2016

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UK Community Resilience – a brilliant example of what really works

A couple of posts ago when talking about heatwaves I casually mentioned some exciting developments in how EVAQ8 is getting involved in Community Resilience in England’s largest county. If you thought Yorkshire you were right. Actually, I was referring to North Yorkshire, with 3212 square miles of glorious landscape and many diverse communities one of the most fascinating places in the UK – or so I think, impatient to explore and take my camera up north at the next opportunity.

But let me start at the beginning and introduce you to the simply brilliant North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum or NYLRF team. They are doing something new and amazing:  they’ve come up with a robust plan to engage their local people pro-actively with Emergency and Disaster Preparedness.

The best bit is: their strategy is really working and I am thrilled and honored to share these developments with you as we go along. For this is where all this gets really exiting: it is an active work in progress right now which means we are at the very forefront of some pretty ground-breaking stuff:

the NYLRF Community Emergency Plan Scheme

Preparedness & Planning – first some background: why, who, where and what

The ‘why’ is easy: it’s the law. Since 2004 under the Civil Contingency’s Act, Category 1 responders have a duty to prepare and plan for emergencies. There are 38 Local Resilience Forums in England and 5 in Wales which are at the core of the national network that also includes ReadyScotland and Northern Ireland Civil Contingencies Branch.

Not only must the LRFs warn and inform the public, they also must promote preparedness and resilience to businesses (Business Continuity) and to the public in general. Naturally it’s a bit more complex than that but for my purposes here that about covers the who, where and what. However, I’ve not touched on the concept of Community Resilience everyone is talking about these days just yet. So….

What is ‘Community Resilience’ and how does it tie in with Preparedness and Planning?

Definitions are important as they help make a concept practical which in turn triggers policy changes and the flow of resources (see earlier post What Disaster, Why Preparedness).  So let’s start with ‘Community’: that is simply a group of people either living in the same place or having a particular characteristic in common1. The theory2 goes (and it’s quite intuitive really) that well prepared – meaning informed and equipped – individuals, families, neighborhoods, workplaces, faith organisations etc. that closely interact are better capable of mobilizing resources for response and recovery. Or in other words:

Resilience is based on a culture of preparedness                                             (Ready Scotland, 2013)

So far it is quite straight forward but now it gets trickier because ‘Community Resilience’ as a concept means many things to many people and there is a considerable ongoing debate. Rather than bore you to tears let me simply state that I found the CARRI Report definition (2013, p10) one of the most useful:

Community resilience is the capability to anticipate risk, limit impact and bounce back rapidly through survival, adaptability, evolution and growth in the face of turbulent change.

source: https://www.laresilience.org/images/community-resilience-ovals.pngWhat I particularly like is the focus on capability. It implies inherent and latent capacities. It also ties neatly to preparedness which is not just about needs and liabilities but also about assets. In my view this creates an empowering shift and starting point to mobilize engagement which, given the right momentum, may overcome even learnt helplessness and apathy. Thus

Community Resilience is

  • an inherent and dynamic community property
  • a community adaptation to adversity that leads to positive outcomes with respect to community functionality
  • a way to compare communities in terms of their ability to adapt

(Pfefferbaum et al, 2015)

Community Resilience: right input – right output/engagement

Community Resilience efforts are time and relationship intensive (Houston, 2015). However, it does not need to be complicated. Committed leadership is crucial and with this we are back to our story and the North Yorkshire Local Resilience Forum Team.  So, what happened?

Earlier this year NYLRF put an upgraded strategy in place.

The right ingredients for Community Resilience – a Success Story and Model approach

Having identified parishes as one of their key target communities, NYLRF adapted their existing scheme with an ambitious set of incentives which made the following assets available to their parishes:

  • free practical resources: Emergency Kit (comprehensive resources including winter preparedness that were specifically designed by NYLRF and EVAQ8) and a reduced cost defibrillator (Yorkshire Ambulance)
  • free information: comprehensive resources and templates to aid in preparing plans as well as warning and informing the local community
  • free training: British Red Cross first aid training and Yorkshire Ambulance Service defibrillator training for the community

This NYLRF Community Emergency Plan scheme not only provides the perfect mix of practical support (information, practical templates and kit, valuable training), it also ticks all the right boxes from the point of view of the latest research and good practice; it represents

  • focus on community engagement
  • bio-ethical principles, ie. autonomy, beneficence
  • emphasizing assets and needs in a multi-hazard approach relevant to the local context
  • encouraging skills and development

(Pfefferbaum et al, 2015)

So, it’s no surprise that  NYLRF is highly successful in promoting and building community resilience!

Just how successful I will share with you next time when I write more about their current impact, what other types communities may also benefit and about other strategies such as NYLRF’s pro-active participation in key promotional events .

In the meantime, please feel free to check out the North Yorkshire website,  (twitter @NYorksPrepared ), the additional resources/references listed below and resources through our info gateway Emergency Plan.

How resilient is your community?

Have a great week.

Monika

[edited to add: part 2 of the story has now been published; or simply look under the category ‘Yorkshire Model’].


thank you for sharing and helping raise awareness for Community Resilience and Preparedness!

References / Resources

  • 1 Oxford Dictionary | might seem trivial but it is important. There are many different kinds of communities with specific and unique preparedness requirements;  something I will explore later
  • 2 Bronfenbrenner’s bio-ecological theory of development and resilience (Boon et al, 2012 in Prior and Hagmann, 2014;)
  • – Houston, Brian (2015) Bouncing Forward: Assessing Advances in Community Resilience Assessment, Intervention and Theory to Guide Future Work; American Behavioral Scientist, 2015, Vol.59(2), pp.175-180
  • – Pfefferbaum, Betty; Pfefferbaum, Rose and Van Horn, Richard (2015) Community Resilience Interventions: Participatory, Assessment-Based, Action-Oriented Processes.  American Behavioral Scientist February 2015 59: 238–253, first published online on September 22, 2014 doi:10.1177/0002764214550298
  • – Prior, Timothy and Hagmann, Jonas (2014)  Measuring resilience: methodological and political challenges of a trend security concept, Journal of Risk Research, 2014, Vol.17(3), p.281-298

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Preparedness for Power Cuts, Brownouts and Blackouts

updated 09/10/2017

Power failures are common in the wake of storms (BBC) and disasters, man-made or natural; for example floods (Telegraph) and drought (Brazil dries up and blacks out, 2015) even UK mini heatwaves (Ashbourne News Telegraph). Also see South Australia’s Blackout explained (09/2016 black start)

Power outages can also occur without warning because of faults or accidents.

You may need to shelter-in-place and wait it out or you may have to evacuate (Feb 2015: Liverpool One John Lewis evacuated after power cut as restaurants unable to serve food, Liverpool Echo)

 

Power cuts are predicted to become more frequent, not only causing damage to the economy ($180 billion in the USA) but also affect transport, security and health (Lincoln University). Concerns and discussions on the UK energy safety gap are ongoing (Guardian).

2003 – a memorable year for spectacular power cuts

Looking back, 2003 was a particularly eventful year. In the US and Canada 55 million people were affected during the Great Northeast Blackout, 14th August 2003:   Fortunately, most power cuts last only minutes, but even such short durations can have a substantial impact on you personally as well as business. The London Blackout (28 August 2003) lasted just 34 minutes (BBC) during which  

        • 400 calls were taken by the London Fire Brigade
        • 100 rescues were made
        • all main rail services stopped in London and the South East
        • 60% of London Underground was affected

 If not stranded in lifts or underground, thousands of Londoners and visitors either took to the rain soaked streets or found shelter in candle lit pubs and restaurants. Outages not only happen in summer. They happen every day (DNO live twitter list) and can affect everyone. Most spectacularly and recently again London:

 

What is a Brownout? What to do during a Brownout

Brownouts, the opposite of a power surge, refer to a drop in voltage that can last for minutes or hours. Brownouts  commonly occur either by accident or intentional, for example, when used for emergency load reduction to avert a full blown a blackout.     Common signs of a brownout are      

                • flickering lights
                • rapid switching on/off of appliances
                • sudden computer and internet failure

 Usually harmless, brownouts nevertheless can damage your equipment so when you notice rapidly flickering lights, act immediately and unplug your computers, routers, TV, devices being charged, all appliances etc. During a Brownout, as soon as you notice fluctuations (i.e. when the lights start flickering badly)  

            • switch off and unplug computers, TVs, printers, routers, mobile phones, tablets or any other devices that are plugged in and/or charging
            • reduce your power consumption: switch off anything you do not need
            • be ready for a blackout in case your supply fails to stabilise source: https://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/71610000/jpg/_71610198_71610193.jpg

 

Preparedness for a Power Cut – follow these 10 top tips

Know your supplier and how to contact them. Suppliers often host a live power outage map and provide information and support also on twitter. The new emergency number for power cuts is 105 see guidance from your supplier; i.e. UK Power Networks’ Domestic and Business

          • make a checklist/map of all your electrical items that need turning OFF in case of a power cut
          • if you use crucial medical equipment requiring electricity, put yourself on your suppliers priority register
          • alternative communications: keep a plug-in cord telephone for emergencies that does not need electricity; stock spare batteries and power packs for mobile devices
          • alternative power: ranges from power generators to UPS devices (~ 1 hour), batteries and hand-crank or solar operated devices; more see generators

 

What to do during a Power Cut – NEW! CALL 105*

Is it just you? Check your fuse box to see if any have tripped – there could be a problem with your property’s wiring and you may need to call an electrician. If your neighbor is also affected, then call your local distribution company to find out if it’s a network problem. Normally, power cuts are locally or regionally based

          • switch OFF all appliances and equipment that may have been in use before the interrupt
          • leave one light switched on to know when the power is restored
          • secure your property; bells and alarms may not work during the outage (manual warning)

 

What to do when Power is restored

          • check all your equipment and appliances
          • only gradually turn your equipment and appliances back on, keeping an eye on possible fluctuations
          • check and and reset all timer switches; i.e. water heating, gas or oil central heating systems, electric clocks

Additional useful resources to understand what happens, the consequences of power cuts and what you must plan and prepare for and how to prepare for and cope with power outages:

      • list of major power outages wiki
      • electric safety HSE
      • will your landline work during a power cut? Ofcom

 Be prepared, not scared. Have a good week.

Monika | @MonikaAlMufti 

This page is also accessed by https://evaq8.co.uk/blog/preparedness-for-powercuts-brownouts-and-blackouts  thank you for sharing and helping raise awareness for Emergency Preparedness!

 

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Climate Change – who will adapt and develop Resilience and how?

UK floods from space; UK-DMC2 satellite images the flooding on the rivers Arun and Adur in Sussex (source: BBC: http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/72129000/jpg/_72129613_arun_adur_dmcii_after_green.jpg
UK floods from space; UK-DMC2 satellite images the flooding on the rivers Arun and Adur in Sussex (source: BBC)

Last Saturday I posted about sobering article in The Guardian titled ‘Climate change is here now and it could lead to global conflict‘ on our facebook page. Perhaps even more interesting was to follow the huge number of comments left by the public, 1419 at last count. It struck me just how much ‘heat’ some of these comments and highly polarised debates generated, pitching naysayers (it’s just weather!) against doomsayers (worldwide collapse) with a heavy sprinkling of black humour and sarcasm.

The bitter taste of what climate change might have in store for the UK certainly has rattled many nerves.

Extreme weather events no longer are a distant and intangible threat which hitherto was side-lined by public apathy, an attitude of ‘not here, not now and not us’.

Are the 2014 floods really going to change people’s outlook?

This is discussed in a recent New Scientist article by Adam Corner, a research associate in the School of Psychology at Cardiff University who manages the Talking Climate project for the Climate Outreach and Information Network (also as a blog post).

What influential people say – or fail to say – matters

Unsurprisingly, it has been found that some people will remain unmoved as every aspect of the topic of extreme weather and climate change is subject to powerful political, cultural and psychological filters. Crucially, what so called “elite cues” say really matters, especially when they say nothing1. Elite cues are the messages people get from the media, politicians and other high-profile voices i.e. scientists that are understandably reluctant to make simplistic causal links between single weather events and the highly complex dynamics of a changing climate.

I wholeheartedly join Adam Corner in arguing that the climate change debate urgently needs narratives that link ordinary people to the climate change challenge. Extreme weather will have an impact on most aspects of society and will affect us all individually, our families and loved ones. It is high time to discuss – but not through continued polarized debates that create more heat than light.

Everyone affected by the floods need to be heard

People have suffered. People are scared. Some are terrified. Others have a more positive outlook or have luckily not (yet) been affected at all and so might have difficulty to fully empathize. We’re all different and have a right to be heard without being insulted or accused.

I hold with Marilynne Robinson2 who states:

“It is only prudent to make a very high estimate of human nature, first of all in order to contain the worst impulses of human nature, and then to liberate its best impulses.”

I hope this is remembered in the many forthcoming debates.

Monika


thank you for sharing, raising awareness for Emergency Preparedness!

source

References:

1 Adam Cornor discussing Rober Brulle’s analysis of US public opinion on climate change blog post

2 Marilynne Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning author, in “The Strange History of Altruism” in the book “Absence of Mind”; i.e. see Guardian book review

Also of interest “Is it time to join the ‘preppers’? How to survive the climate-change apocalypse” article in The Guardian, 17.02.2014

For more EVAQ8 blog simply use the right hand navigation. For emergency kits and practical resources use the top navigation. For FREE resources head over to our Preparedness Hub and find out why we use humour. If you like this post, please share it to help raise awareness for Emergency and Disaster Preparedness. Thank you!
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UK Flooding – Community Resilience is the only answer

Community efforts in clearing floods in Cornwall

Is this crazy weather ever going to stop?
This question must have been asked millions of times this last week. I’ve read it in the newspapers and magazines, heard it on radio, on the streets, in buses and the tube, on TV. The UK’s resilience, our resilience to cope, adapt, prevail and move on is being sorely tested.

Looking back at the heart-breaking images from the Somerset Levels, the South West and East and noting this weekend’s new severe flood warnings for substantial parts of the Thames Valley it is hard to keep optimistic. It is hard not to descend into depression, to keep up mental agility, thinking flexibly and accurately, neither over- nor underestimating the severity of the impact to our lives and that of loved ones. It is hard to find the energy and willingness to go on and change, willing to find new strategies and simply to continue.

Where is the strength going to come from? How can it be tapped? In ‘resilience speak’ this concerns two key ‘ingredients’ that make up resilience:

character strength – identifying the top strengths in oneself and others, relying on one’s strengths to overcome challenges and meet goals, cultivating a strength approach throughout, including these key virtues (positive psychology)

connections – building strong relationships through positive and effective communication, empathy, a willingness to ask for and to offer help

Both these key ‘ingredients’ to resilience go hand in hand, neither can really be separated out.

Character strength is never built in isolation. How strong we can be crucially depends on our early and continued social connections throughout life. In turn the strength of our social groups, small and large, are nourished and propelled by inspired individuals that choose to be extraordinary. These extraordinary times have produced extraordinary communities in all flood affected parts of the United Kingdom.

media imageAs a somewhat removed Swiss observer yet from ‘within so to speak as someone who lives here I am continually amazed at the British: the speed and boundless generosity with which communities have come together, pooling resources and sheer man (and woman and child!) power to help each another as well as to offer help across wider areas. In fact, generosity is and was so overwhelming that this morning the local newspaper Cheddarvalley Gazette reports that the Westfield Church flood rest centre in Bridgwater had to close their intake of food donations. However, many flood relief funds are active or are just being formed:

Somerset: Somerset Emergency Relief Fund; Farming Communities need help with animal feed (Farmers Weekly); donate via Just Giving (donations should be marked “For Somerset Farmers”); Rotary UK flood appeal for Somerset
Southwest: Devon Flood Fund; Tauheedul Relief Trust;
West and North:
RSPB appeal to help repair extensive damage at Snettisham, Havergate, Dingle and other nature reserves; EDP Norfolk Flood Appeal is ongoing

Also see Storify for more ways to help, courtesy of @wildwalkerwoman via @ThirlwallAssoc Thanks!

Eric Pickles, the Local Government Secretary, was reported in The Telegraph on Sunday suggesting to “spend aid abroad to stop flooding in the UK”. Calls to divert foreign aid are not new, i.e. BBC last September on austerity. While showing flexible thinking and a willingness to try new approaches, simply diverting foreign aid is unfortunately not entirely straight forward. How much is the UK spending? According to the Guardian last year, the UK’s official development assistance (ODA) is expected to rise to GBP11.3bn when it hits the 0.7% target. With a population of about 63 million, the figure works out at roughly GBP137 per Brit. This is part of a long-term resilience strategy as David Cameron argued and in everyone’s interests to build a more prosperous world, otherwise the problems of conflict, mass migration and uncontrollable climate change “will come and visit us at home”. Well, it seems the latter certainly has.

While the politicians wrangle, let us remember that the Disasters Emergency Commitee DEC has raised over GBP90 million for the Typhoon Haiyan victims in the Philippines all mostly from private donations which works out to an average of just GBP1.43 donated per person living in the UK. Despite recent hardships, anyone here luckily can afford to give GBP1.50 or 2.- to help a neighbour in need.

Monika


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